Political Polling After the End of the Phone

With over a third of U.S. households forgoing the land-line and people using their phones less and less for talking, the phone call is no longer the best way for pollsters to reach the people they need to speak with. With that changing trend, this election season polling places like Gallup worked cell-phone calls into its repertoire to get a better reflection of society, Gallup spokesperson Frank Newport told Wired‘s Mat Honan. And, logically, as more people replace landlines for cell phones, polling would increasingly throw cell-phones into the mix. But, it doesn’t look like that’s really the next frontier in polling. For one, it’s expensive. A 1996 Federal regulation requires that calls to cell phones be hand-dialed, rather than computer generated, which costs more money because employing people (rather than machines) takes dollars, notes Bits Blog’s Quentin Hardy. Plus, because of caller-ID, guilting cell phone users into taking a poll proves harder than haranguing an unsuspecting land-line answerer. (Of course, many land-line owners have caller-ID, too.) So, if the annoying, always disruptive at the worst time, pollster phone call is on the outs, then what does the future of political polling hold?

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Survey Monkey

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For real. The amateur-looking website conducted a series of polls throughout this election period, at times with better accuracy than the over-the-phone guys. In an explanatory post on the site, the company explains it had 96 percent accuracy with its methods. Over 60,000 people took one of the site’s surveys the day before election day alone, SurveyMonkey’s vice president, Philip Garland, told Hardy. 

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Though some have questioned the accuracy of the online poll because of its newness to the field. Nate Silver, whose words on all things polling we should now consider law, confirmed that many of the most accurate polling came from online surveys. “When people are asked questions by a person, they feel like they should make a choice,” Garland added. People are more candid on the Internet, which is not at all surprising. 

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Text Messages

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Though a new survey says that text messaging is on the decline, Gallup is already experimenting with it as a polling technique in Central and South America, notes Honan. Though it doesn’t sound that different than screening a phone call, text messages are a lot less invasive and they don’t require an answer right away. Also, increasingly, it is how people do much of their communicating. 

Emails, Unfortunately

Though that sounds logical since so many Americans are accessible by email, it turns out it is too hard to get a good sample using email, since many people have multiple email addresses, and it’s hard to account for that difference. Also, isn’t it just so easy to click delete without opening? However, that hasn’t stopped certain organizations from using it, as Bloomberg Businessweek‘s Peter Coy explains. Some firms use email lists that aren’t representative of the general population, he notes. 

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How Often Do People Have Sex at the Office?

As someone who reads people’s sex diaries professionally—for my books and website I collect thousands of them—I am here to report that former CIA Director David Petraeus is really just a talented guy who, considering his marital and work history, is a typical American male.

Petraeus has been married for 38 years. Very few human beings sleep with just one person in a 38-year period. Most people simply aren’t married that long. According to the Census, the majority of marriages end long before the 38th anniversary mark (the average divorce occurs eight years after the wedding), and of the marriages that stay intact for 38 years, approximately half involve at least one other sexual partner.

Various news outlets reported that Petraeus had sex under his desk at CIA headquarters. This makes his case a rare one. Although the workplace is the most common place to meet a new partner, few people actually have sex at the office—in the 3,500 diaries I’ve read, a grand total of 11 office affairs actually took place within the workplace walls. Workaholics logging long hours, particularly those working 12- to 18-hour days, account for seven of those 11. (Oh, and regarding the issue of on the desk vs. under the desk, I’ve discovered that people who prefer steadiness and balance—and the kinds of sexual positions given names such as “missionary,” for instance—opt for the floor. The desk is the domain of more acrobatic love-makers.)

Offices are no longer the great bastions of sex that they were in the Mad Men era, when doors were thick and carpeting thicker. The age of wide open “co-working environments,” glass walls, and security cameras has made the office a difficult place to find privacy. (Unless, of course, your office in a mid-20th-century government building is possibly camera-free and fully secure because you’re the head of U.S. intelligence—and perhaps your boss will never notice because he’s the president of the U.S. during an election year. Just saying.)

Regardless, privacy aside, there’s one thing I find to be an absolute certainty: If you communicated evidence of your lovemaking by e-mail or text message—like Petraeus apparently did—my research shows that you will likely be found out. All cheating affairs I encountered were discovered because of a digital paper trail. Remember, people: Don’t put it in writing.

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Vt. Mom Begs FDA: Save My Other Son

Jenn McNary, a mother of six from Saxtons River, Vt., is desperate.

Both her boys have Duchenne muscular dystrophy, but only her 10-year-old Max has access to a wonder drug that appears to be reversing the symptoms of this deadly disease.

His 13-year-old brother Austin is languishing in a wheelchair while Max has been able to take the drug eteplirsen through a highly successful clinical trial.

After 60 weeks on an IV infusion, Max was able to participate in a three-mile Halloween walk.

“It’s the first time ever — he’s never been able to walk that far. He’s always gone with a wheelchair, even as a toddler,” said McNary, 32. “He actually doesn’t look like a Duchenne kid at all. And his balance is great.”

“People all over the world are calling it a miracle,” she said of the drug.

Now, McNary has written petitioned the Food and Drug Administration to give accelerated approval of the medication, the fastest way to help Austin and other boys with the disease.

Both boys, whose last name is Leclair, have the same gene mutation that the drug targets and will eventually kill them. Austin was diagnosed at 3 and Max at 3 months.

McNary and her husband Craig are also raising four other healthy children in a second marriage.

There is no cure for Duchenne muscular dystrophy. Until now, doctors have only been able to use steroids, which just temporarily delay the inevitable loss of muscle strength.

“My brother says he’s doing it for me, that he’s trying really hard,” Austin told ABCNews.com in August. “That’s why he wanted to do it.”

Austin was not allowed to participate in the clinical trial because one of the inclusion criteria was that he be able to complete a six-minute walk.

“This has been a bitter-sweet journey for us,” McNary wrote in a letter to the FDA this week. “As we watch Max get better, we also watch his older brother, Austin, 13, get worse. He suffers, silently, as his disease progresses.”

Duchenne muscular dystrophy affects one in 3,500 male births, about 20,000 children in the United States and 300,000 worldwide, according to Cure Duchenne, one of three organizations that have funded the clinical trial.

The muscular disease strikes between the ages of 3 and 5 as boys progressively lose their ability to walk. Eventually, they are wheelchair bound, their upper body strength fails, and, like Austin, they eventually cannot raise their arms to feed themselves.

Later, their breathing is affected and they require tracheotomies and breathing assistance. Eventually, the heart and lungs fail.

Parents of children who were in the clinical trial of eteplirsen at Nationwide Children’s Hospital in Columbus are calling it a “wonder drug.”

According to McNary, all 12 children in the double-blind study received “some benefit” from the drug. It has no known side effects.

“Even two boys who stopped walking before taking it have stronger upper bodies and their hearts are strong,” she said. “They have progressed to stable.”

Muscular Dystrophy Drug Could Stabilize Disease

If this exon-skipping drug is approved, she estimates 15 percent of boys with Duchenne could be helped, those with the type that skips exon 51. As a class of drugs, they could up to 85 percent of boys with the disease.

Stock prices for its manufacturer, Sarepta Therapeutics. , have soared.

If Sarepta Therapeutics can get accelerated approval, the drug could be available in six to nine months, according to McNary. Otherwise, the wait could be four or five years — too late for Austin.

“We are very encouraged by the data we have seen to date,” said Chris Garabedian, president and CEO of Sarepta Therapeutics, which makes the drug and is pressing the FDA to take action.

“If we start using the drug earlier in patients, we might be able to stabilize whatever state they are in for a longer period of time,” said Garabedian. “We are not going to end up creating Olympic athletes from this drug, but we are encouraged this could really halt or slow the progression.”

McNary is reaching out to media and online petition sites to encourage as many people as possible to write letters of support to the FDA.

But as she waits approval, Austin gets weaker. In the last few months, he has lost all upper body control and must be lifted 100 percent of the time.

Just recently, he was diagnosed with sleep apnea and must go on a nighttime machine to keep his lungs inflated.

Austin keeps his spirits high, according to McNary.

On Halloween, he dressed his wheelchair up as a hot dog stand, carrying his dachshund in a cloth bun. And just recently, his father and uncle took him hunting. They held up the gun for Austin and he shot his first buck — an eight-pointer.

McNary is convinced that if the FDA can move on approving the drug that has healed Max, it can also help Austin.

Until then, he’s “hanging in there,” she said. “He has a huge zest for life.”

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Clarke’s 218 puts Australia on front foot

BRISBANE (Reuters) – Australia captain Michael Clarke scored a brilliant unbeaten double century to give the hosts a remarkable 37-run first innings lead on the fourth day of the first test against South Africa on Monday.

Supported first by a maiden century from opener Ed Cowan in a record stand of 259, and then by Mike Hussey‘s 86 not out, Clarke’s 218 helped lift Australia from 40 for three when he took to the crease on Sunday to 487 for four when stumps were drawn.

It was Clarke’s sixth test century, and his third double hundred, in the 15 tests since he was named captain last year in the wake of the Ashes humiliation and Australia’s quarter-final exit at the World Cup.

Although by no means a chanceless knock, the 31-year-old played with patience when South Africa’s vaunted pacemen got anything out of the Gabba track before punishing anything loose with some fine shot-making.

When he carried his bat back to the pavilion at the end of the day to the raucous cheers of a sparse crowd at the famous Brisbane ground, Clarke had faced 350 balls over 504 minutes and scored 21 fours.

“I’m very happy with that,” Clarke, who accumulated his 1,000 test run of the year during the innings, said in an interview on the boundary.

“I didn’t feel great at the start and I think Ed Cowan batted beautifully.

“We’re in a great position with a 30-odd lead. I’d like another 70 odd runs in the morning and then I want to have a crack with the ball. We’ll see what happens.”

Cowan departed for 136 in heartbreaking fashion just before tea, run out at the non-striker’s end when Dale Steyn got a finger to a Clarke drive that hit the stumps and the opener was caught out of his crease backing up.

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His partnership with Clarke was an Australian record for the fourth wicket at the Gabba, beating the 245 Clarke and Mike Hussey made against Sri Lanka in 2007.

Cowan’s wicket was the only wicket to fall on the day and Hussey started pouring on the runs as if determined to get the record back for his own partnership with his captain.

The 37-year-old bucked his poor recent form against South Africa by reaching his half century off just 68 balls with a drive through long-off and was closing on a century of his own when play ended.

It was Hussey’s cut four off Morne Morkel with which Australia overhauled South Africa’s first innings tally of 450 and put themselves in with an unlikely chance of even winning a test which lost an entire day to rain on Saturday.

Clarke’s negotiation of the “nervous nineties” for his century had been fraught and he was nearly run out going for a second run that would have brought him to the hundred mark.

There were no such jitters on his approach to the two hundred mark, which he passed by slapping the ball through mid-on for two runs before giving the badge on his helmet another kiss.

Cowan’s century was a retort to those critics who have consistently questioned his place in the team since he made his debut in last year’s Melbourne test against India.

The 30-year-old lefthander reached the mark two overs after lunch by pulling a short Vernon Philander delivery for four to the square leg boundary, beginning his joyous celebrations before the ball hit the rope.

South Africa’s number one test ranking is on the line in the series, which continues with matches in Adelaide and Perth after Brisbane.

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James Bond soars to box office record with “Skyfall”

(Reuters) – James Bond can don the tuxedo and break out the Dom Perignon after the super spy returned to theaters in record fashion at the weekend, blowing away box office rivals with $ 87.8 million in ticket sales for the U.S. and Canadian debut of new movie “Skyfall” for the biggest opening in the franchise’s history.

The best North American opening for the 50-year-old Bond franchise adds to a strong tally of $ 428.6 million for “Skyfall” overseas. Globally, the movie starring Daniel Craig as 007 has now earned $ 518.6 million since first hitting international theaters on October 26, distributor Sony Pictures said.

“Skyfall” handily beat Walt Disney Co animated movie “Wreck-It Ralph,” the story of a video game character who destroys everything in his path. The family film that topped last week’s charts grabbed $ 33.1 million from Friday through Sunday and slipped to second place.

Denzel Washington drama “Flight,” about an airline captain who saves a plane from crashing, pulled in $ 15.1 million to finish third.

Bond’s allure proved unbeatable in “Skyfall,” the third movie starring Craig and the first in four years. The last Bond film, “Quantum of Solace” in 2008, opened with a then-record $ 68 million at North American (U.S. and Canadian) theaters.

“We’ve always been very bullish about the film, but I don’t think anyone expected the kind of stunning numbers that we’ve seen,” said Rory Bruer, president of worldwide distribution for Sony Corp‘s Sony Pictures studio.

“How many pictures in just over two weeks have earned more than half a billion already?” he told Reuters.

“We’ve seen huge openings in every country that it’s opened in. It’s going to be one for the history books,” Bruer added.

In the new movie, Judi Dench returns as Bond’s supervisor, “M.” Bond travels between Istanbul, Shanghai and London as his loyalty to M is tested, while MI6 comes under attack from an unknown threat. Javier Bardem plays the villain Bond must stop.

Bond’s return has been hailed by the critics as a triumph for the 23-film franchise after a tepid response to “Quantum of Solace.” Ninety-two percent of “Skyfall” reviews on the Rotten Tomatoes website were positive, and audiences polled by CinemaScore awarded the film an “A” grade. The film has already exceeded the “Quantum” lifetime box office total.

The $ 200 million movie was produced by MGM, Sony and Eon Productions. Its release comes 50 years after the franchise premiered with “Dr. No” in 1962, and the producers highlighted the anniversary in the film’s marketing. The 22 previous Bond films have grossed $ 5 billion at box offices over five decades.

“Skyfall” was the only major new nationwide release this weekend. Steven Spielberg’s historical drama “Lincoln” opened in 11 theaters with sales of $ 900,000, or $ 81,818 per theater on average. The movie which stars Daniel Day-Lewis as the 16th president expands to 1,500 locations next Friday.

Rounding out the top five, Ben Affleck drama “Argo,” about the rescue of U.S. diplomats from Iran in 1979, finished in fourth place with $ 6.7 million. In fifth place, Liam Neeson hostage thriller “Taken 2″ grabbed $ 4.0 million.

Sony Corp’s movie studio released “Skyfall.” “Flight” was distributed by Paramount Pictures, a unit of Viacom Inc. “Lincoln” was produced by Dreamworks and released by Disney. Time Warner Inc’s Warner Bros. studio released “Argo.” “Taken 2″ was distributed by 20th Century Fox, a unit of News Corp.

(Editing by Doina Chiacu)

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Obama hails veterans, pledges continued support

ARLINGTON, Virginia (Reuters) – President Barack Obama laid a wreath at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier to mark the Veterans Day holiday on Sunday, declaring that soldiers‘ needs would be met even as the country winds down wars in the Middle East and Asia.

In the ceremony at Arlington National Cemetery, Obama pledged continuing support for veterans as they make the transition to civilian life.

“This is the first Veterans Day in a decade in which there are no American troops fighting and dying in Iraq,” the president said at the cemetery across the Potomac River from Washington, where soldiers’ graves are marked with row upon row of simple white stones.

“After a decade of war, our heroes are coming home,” he said. “Over the next few years more than a million service members will transition back to civilian life.”

The president touted the work of first lady Michelle Obama and Jill Biden, wife of Vice President Joe Biden, for their work in the Joining Forces campaign, which urges businesses to hire veterans. He also reaffirmed his commitment to continuing the post-9/11 GI Bill program, which provides college education funding for those who have served, and said soldiers suffering war-related health problems will get the care they need.

“No one who fights for this country overseas should ever have to fight for a job, or a roof over their head, or the care that they have earned when they come home,” he said.

After the ceremony, Obama visited with people in an area of the cemetery known as Section 60, where many of the solders who died in the Iraq and Afghanistan wars are buried.

The Democratic president won re-election to a second four-year term on Tuesday and now faces tough negotiations with Republican congressional leaders to avoid sharp spending cuts that loom at the end of the year. A big chunk of those reductions would come through a decline in defense spending.

During the campaign, Obama and Biden regularly pledged their commitment to bringing troops home from Afghanistan and taking care of American veterans. Obama criticized his opponent, Republican Mitt Romney, for failing to mention the war in Afghanistan during his speech to the Republican National Convention.

(Reporting by Samson Reiny, writing by Mark Felsenthal; Editing by Doina Chiacu)

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Greek lawmakers back fresh cuts

11 November 2012 Last updated at 18:06 ET

Greek lawmakers have approved a 2013 budget involving fresh spending cuts, despite mass public street protests.

The budget was backed in by 167 votes to 128. The bill was a pre-condition for Athens to be granted a 31.5bn euro (£25bn; $ 40bn) EU/IMF loan necessary to stave off bankruptcy.

Another austerity package of tax rises and pension cuts was passed last week.

Ahead of the vote, more than 10,000 protesters rallied outside the parliament in the capital, Athens.

Prime Minister Antonis Samaras earlier warned that without the new loan, Greece would start running out of money on Friday.

Eurozone finance ministers are due to meet just hours after the vote in Athens, and Mr Samaras is now expected to travel to Brussels for a series of meetings.

The problem that he faces is that it could take some weeks before the EU backs the new instalment, BBC Athens correspondent Mark Lowen reports. The measure will have to be approved first by some parliaments, including Germany’s.

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Malaysian charged with Facebook insult of sultan; sister says he’ll file police complaint

KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia – The sister of a Malaysian man who has been charged with insulting a state sultan on Facebook says he is innocent and plans to lodge a complaint over his detention.

Anisa Abdul Jalil, sister of Ahmad Abdul Jalil, says her brother was charged Thursday with making offensive postings on Facebook last month.

She says the charges are ridiculous because there is no evidence linking Ahmad to the posts in question, which were made by someone using the name “Zul Yahaya.”

Ahmad was freed on bail Thursday after six days of detention. Anisa says he will file a complaint with police for unlawful detention and intimidation.

Nine Malaysian states have sultans and other royal figures. Though their roles are largely ceremonial, acts provoking hatred against them are considered seditious.

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How Oscar entry “La Source” launched a campaign for clean water across Haiti

LOS ANGELES (TheWrap.com) – The documentary “La Source” was originally conceived to be the tale of a single project, the efforts by a Princeton University janitor to bring clean water to a single village in rural Haiti.

Now, the film’s exposure has spawned a soccer field, two schools and 20 more villages with sanitary water.

The Oscar-nominated film, which follows Haiti-born Josue Lajeunesse as he fulfills his dream of bringing bacteria-free water to his native village, launched a regional project by the nonprofit Generosity Water to improve the lives of rural Haitians.

“We’re hoping that we can really continue to build on what this film was about,” producer Jordan Wagner told TheWrap’s Steve Pond at Thursday night showing of “La Source,” which is part of TheWrap’s annual Award Screening Series.

Seated at Los Angeles‘ Landmark Theatre alongside director Patrick Shen, producer Brandon Vedder and Lajeunesse, Wagner, the nonprofit’s director, said his organization has already carved out a spot in the film’s namesake village for a school and soccer field.

“We’re putting a plan together to use the film at screenings to mobilize people,” Wagner said. “We figured out which plot of land we’d buy, we’re going to build a primary school and a secondary school.”

Wagner met Lajeunesse after he was filmed in Shen’s “The Philosopher Kings,” a movie about the stories behind college custodians.

He began raising money after hearing the janitor’s lifelong desire to pipe clean water down from a mountain spring and into his village. Students and faculty at Princeton, where Lajeunesse worked after coming to the United States in 1990, held benefit concerts and donated money to help fund the project.

For Lajeunesse, the plan was decades in the works.

“I was seven or eight years old, but I had in my mind that I have to go to school in order to do something to take the people and the town out of the situation,” Lajeunesse told Landmark Theatre audience. “Day by day, day by day, I save, I save, I save but we didn’t know how we were going to start it.”

Then, in January 2010, a 7.0 magnitude earthquake struck Haiti, killing more than 250,000 people and destroying the impoverished nation’s infrastructure.

“The first time we went was about a month after the earthquake,” Vedder said, adding that the humidity in the Caribbean country nearly destroyed the cinematographers’ cameras. “It was hard to be another camera sticking in these people’s faces, right in their lives.”

The troubles didn’t end there. After the pipeline was built and Lajeunesse and his brother installed the spigots, it was clear how the film would begin and finish, but the meat of the story was harder to pare down.

“We knew where it would end, but the whole kind of middle part of the narrative was what was tricky,” Shen said. “We had to have discussions every night about the strategy for the next day.”

And, with $ 30,000 going toward the actual water project, the filmmakers quickly ran out of cash to support themselves during the months of editing.

“The story was happening whether we decided to make this film or not,” Wagner said. “We were scrambling to make this happen. We have the money for the project and this is happening and now we don’t have money for the film.”

Still, the filmmakers raised enough to keep the film alive after its spring-to-fall shooting schedule in 2010, working through the footage for a year and creating a few different cuts of the film before finding its final shape.

The movie premiered at Washington’s Silverdocs festival – the same festival where Wagner first met Shen at a screening of “The Philosopher Kings,” beginning a relationship that led directly to “La Source.”

The film was also a selection in the International Documentary Association’s annual DocuWeeks showcase, which qualified it for the Academy Awards via week-long engagements in Los Angeles and New York in August.

And though Lajeunesse hasn’t been back to Haiti since July 2010 – his janitorial and taxi jobs, plus four kids, make travel difficult – he said he gets phone calls from his family frequently, updating him on how the town is improving.

“Everyone there is so happy,” he said, drawing applause from the audience. “They have water and they don’t know what to say. All the town, they say, ‘tell everyone thank you for me.’”

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Vatican vows to fight gay marriage after gains in U.S., Europe

VATICAN CITY (Reuters) – The Vatican, reacting to strong gains for gay marriage in the United States and Europe, on Saturday pledged never to stop fighting attempts to “erase” the privileged role of heterosexual marriage, which it called it “an achievement of civilization”.

For the second consecutive day, Vatican media weighed in with forceful editorials restating the Roman Catholic Church‘s unequivocal opposition.

“It is clear that in Western countries there is a widespread tendency to modify the classic vision of marriage between a man and woman, or rather to try to give it up, erasing its specific and privileged legal recognition compared to other forms of union,” Father Federico Lombardi, said in a tough editorial on Vatican Radio.

Voters in the U.S. states of Maryland, Maine and Washington state approved same-sex marriage on Tuesday, marking the first time marriage rights have been extended to same-sex couples by popular vote.

Same-sex unions have been legalized in six states and the District of Columbia by lawmakers or courts.

Lombardi’s editorial on Vatican Radio, which is broadcast around the world in some 30 languages, called the votes myopic, saying “the logic of it cannot have a far-sighted outlook for the common good”.

Lombardi, who is also the Vatican’s chief spokesman as well as director of Vatican Radio and Vatican Television, said there was “public acknowledgement” that “monogamous marriage between a man and woman is an achievement of civilization”.

WHY NOT POLYGAMY?

“If not, why not contemplate also freely chosen polygamy and, of course, not to discriminate, polyandry?” he said.

Polyandry is when a woman has more than one husband.

The Catholic Church teaches that homosexuality is not a sin but homosexual acts are. It says the rights of homosexuals should be guaranteed but that their unions should not be recognized as equal to heterosexuals and they should not be allowed to adopt children.

The constitutionality of restricting marriage to unions between a man and a woman is widely expected to be taken up by the U.S. Supreme Court soon.

The powerful U.S. Catholic Bishops conference, which is already at odds with the administration of President Barack Obama because its health care law obliges most employers to cover contraception, is expected to take a lead in trying to influence the court’s decision.

Earlier this week, Spain’s highest court upheld a gay marriage law, and in France the socialist government has unveiled a draft law that would allow gay marriage.

An editorial in Friday’s edition of the Vatican newspaper, L’Osservatore Romano, said local Catholic Churches in many countries around the world were “the sentinels of religious freedom” for opposing gay marriage.

It called support for gay marriage “an ideology founded on political correctness which is invading every culture of the world”.

“The Church is the only institution to say that, while persecuting homosexuals in undoubtedly unjust, opposing marriage between people of the same sex is a point of view that must be respected,” the Vatican newspaper editorial said.

(Reporting By Philip Pullella; Editing by Sophie Hares)

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